AHCCCS Insights: Data to Inform Decision-Making
As of 6/30/2025, Congress is continuing to deliberate the federal budget for fiscal year 2026 (which begins October 1, 2025). On May 22, the House of Representative passed H.R.1 (the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”), this bill would increase the federal debt limit, make changes to federal tax policy, and make changes to federal programs that will increase or decrease spending on these programs. A number of these provisions are designed to reduce federal spending on Medicaid through eligibility restrictions, cost shifts to the states, and other strategies. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that H.R.1 would reduce federal Medicaid spending by more than $800 billion between federal fiscal years 2026 and 2034. On June 17, the Senate released draft legislation that would make larger reductions to Medicaid spending.
The resources below are being made available in response to frequent requests for data regarding AHCCCS (which administers the Medicaid program in Arizona), including information on Medicaid enrollment and spending in Arizona. These data reports are intended to inform stakeholders and policymakers when considering potential policy and programmatic changes in response to federal actions.
Federal Policy Proposal
These summaries have been developed to track Congressional Medicaid proposals, providing a brief summary and quantifying the potential impact to Arizona. These summaries will be updated as additional proposals and further details become available.
| Congressional Proposal | Description | Congress’ National Estimate | Potential Impact in Arizona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limit Medicaid Provider Taxes | Reduces states’ ability to use provider taxes to fund the state share of Medicaid costs. The House bill would place a moratorium on new or amended taxes while the Senate version would impose the moratorium and reduce the maximum allowable tax from 6.0 percent to 3.5 percent of net patient revenue. | Federal savings is $89 billion over 10 years for the house bill, impact of the Senate bill is to be determined (as of 6/30/2025). | The moratorium on new or amended taxes would limit Arizona’s ability to respond to future needs.
If the existing limit on provider taxes was reduced from 6.0 percent to 3.5 percent, Arizona will have to choose between replacing lost provider tax revenues; reducing AHCCCS spending through eliminating coverage, reducing benefits, and/or cutting provider payments; or some combination of these options. Replacing lost provider tax revenues would require almost $600 million annually in state funds. If the lost provider tax revenue is not replaced, Arizona would have to reduce Medicaid spending by $ 2.4 billion annually ($600 million in tax revenues and $1.8 billion in matching federal funds). |
| Eliminate Enhanced FMAP for Expansion Populations. As of 6/30/2025, neither the House nor the Senate have included this proposal in their legislation. |
Eliminate the 90 percent federal matching rate for “expansion” populations and replace with the standard matching rate. | $561 billion in federal savings over 10 years | Arizona would have to choose between replacing reduced federal funds, eliminating coverage, or some combination of these options. Replacing lost federal funds would require Arizona to increase its spending by more than $1.9 billion annually. Eliminating coverage would result in 500,000 Arizonans losing health insurance. Healthcare services for these populations totaled $5.8 billion in federal fiscal year 2024, more than 30 percent of all AHCCCS spending. |
- Provider Tax Reduction (June 2025)
- Enhanced FMAP Elimination (April 2025)
Arizona Congressional District Data
The reports found in this section provide data related to AHCCCS member enrollment and payments to providers each of by Arizona’s nine congressional districts.
Overview: AHCCCS Data (by Congressional District) to Inform Potential Federal Medicaid Changes (updated May 2025 with V2 - released to add gender information)
- AHCCCS in Congressional District 1
- AHCCCS in Congressional District 2
- AHCCCS in Congressional District 3
- AHCCCS in Congressional District 4
- AHCCCS in Congressional District 5
- AHCCCS in Congressional District 6
- AHCCCS in Congressional District 7
- AHCCCS in Congressional District 8
- AHCCCS in Congressional District 9
Additional AHCCCS Data Reports to Inform
The reports and information found in this section provide an overview and data related to AHCCCS member enrollment and payments to providers.
AHCCCS Data to Inform Potential Federal Medicaid Changes (updated 2025)
AHCCCS Highlights
| Number | Description |
|---|---|
| 1,971,674 | Number of people covered by AHCCCS as of June 2025 |
| $21 Billion | AHCCCS Budget (SFY 2025) from all sources |
| 107,396 | Number of providers registered with AHCCCS as of 3/1/2025 |
| 46,018 | Number of individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities receiving long term care as of June 2025 |
| 27,379 | Number of individuals who are elderly or physically disabled receiving long term care as of June 2025 |
| 1 in 2 | Proportion of Arizona births covered by AHCCCS in CY 2024 |
| 60% | Percent of nursing facility days covered by AHCCCS in CY 2024 |
| 40% | Percent of AHCCCS enrollment who are children as of 1/1/2025 |
| 8 | Number of contracted managed care health plans as of 10/1/2024 |
| 64,000 | Number of AHCCCS members treated for malignant cancer in FFY 2024 |
| 181,000 | Number of AHCCCS members treated for diabetes in FFY 2024 |
| 67,500 | Number of AHCCCS members treated for opioid related disorders in FFY 2024 |
