AHCCCS Insights: Data to Inform Decision-Making

The House of Representatives’ budget resolution for fiscal year 2025 (House Concurrent Resolution 14) adopted on February 25, 2025, calls on the Committee on Energy and Commerce to reduce spending on programs within its jurisdiction by $880 billion over the next ten years. Many options being considered by the Committee relate to the Medicaid program.

The resources below are being made available in response to frequent requests for data regarding the AHCCCS program, including information on Medicaid enrollment and financials in Arizona. These data reports are intended to provide an overview of Arizona’s Medicaid program and member populations to inform stakeholders and policymakers when designing potential programmatic changes and policy reforms.

Federal Policy Proposal

These summaries have been developed to track Congressional Medicaid proposals, providing a brief summary and quantifying the potential impact to Arizona. These summaries will be updated as additional proposals and further details become available.

Congressional Proposal Description Congress’ National Estimate Potential Impact
Eliminate Enhanced FMAP for Expansion Populations Eliminate the 90 percent federal contribution rate for “expansion” populations and replace with the standard contribution rate (which is currently about 65 percent in Arizona). $561 billion in federal savings over 10 years Arizona would have to choose between backfilling lost federal funds, eliminating coverage, or some combination of these options:
  • Backfilling for lost federal funds would require $1.9 billion annually in additional state funds.
  • Eliminating coverage would result in 500,000 Arizonans losing health insurance. Spending on healthcare services for these populations totaled $5.8 billion in federal fiscal year 2024, more than 30 percent of all AHCCCS spending.
Limit Medicaid Provider Taxes Reduce states’ ability to use provider taxes to fund the state share of Medicaid costs by reducing the maximum allowable tax from six percent to three percent. $175 billion in federal savings over 10 years Arizona would have to choose between backfilling lost federal funds; reducing AHCCCS spending through eliminating coverage, reducing benefits, and/or cutting provider payments; or some combination of these options:
  • Backfilling for lost federal funds would require more than $700 million annually in additional state funds.
  • If lost tax revenues are not replaced, AHCCCS spending would have to be reduced by about $2.8 billion ($700 million in tax revenues and $2.1 billion in matching federal funds).

Arizona Congressional District Data

The reports found in this section provide data related to AHCCCS member enrollment and payments to providers segregated by Arizona’s nine congressional districts.

Overview: AHCCCS Data (by Congressional District) to Inform Potential Federal Medicaid Changes (updated May 2025 with V2 - released to add gender information)

Additional AHCCCS Data Reports to Inform

The reports and information found in this section provide an overview and data related to AHCCCS member enrollment and payments to providers for Arizona’s Medicaid program, including AHCCCS programs

AHCCCS Data to Inform Potential Federal Medicaid Changes (updated March 2025 with V2 released to add Tables 5B-5F)

AHCCCS Highlights

Number Description
2,027,424 Number of people covered by AHCCCS as of 3/1/2025
$21 Billion AHCCCS Budget (SFY 2025)
107,396 Number of providers registered with AHCCCS as of 3/1/2025
45,242 Number of individuals that are elderly or physically disabled served by AHCCCS as of 3/1/2025
1 in 2 Proportion of Arizona births covered by AHCCCS in CY 2024
60% Percent of nursing facility days covered by AHCCCS in CY 2024
40% Percent of AHCCCS enrollment who are children as of 1/1/2025
8 Number of contracted managed care health plans as of 10/1/2024
64,000 Number of AHCCCS members treated for malignant cancer in FFY 2024
181,000 Number of AHCCCS members treated for Diabetes in FFY 2024
67,500 Number of AHCCCS members treated for opioid-related disorders in FFY 2024